"When Gene Pools Decline, Deleterious Genes Can Move In"

Background

The goal of this data-based driven study was to continue to assess the extent to which four factors are influencing the stud book and the future of 60 breeds in the conformation sport. In my first article (Part 1), the analysis and discussion centered around the importance and impact of how declining litter and dog registrations are affecting the sport, and which breeds are at greatest risk for extinction in the show ring. This article extends that effort and focuses on the second factor influencing the sport and the breeds are greatest risk. In Part 1 the analysis showed that the number of puppies produced in litters and those actually registered are significantly different for many breeds. This report looks at the importance of the low percentage of registrations and why they can be used to portend the future of many breeds and the sport.

This discussion begins with data from 2017 showing how declining litter and dog registrations, coupled with a low rate of puppy registrations, are good indicators of breed population size, show entries, breed clubs, breeders and exhibitors. One of the most troubling findings that point's to this conclusion is the fact that only 40% of all pups born are being registered, which means that 60% are lost to their breed and the stud book. In practical terms, low rates of registration have become the trend for most breeds. Data was not compiled to determine if this trend is impacting obedience, rally or other venues. In just the area of health, these data suggest that breeds unable to register a majority of their pups will not grow and may not be able to maintain their genetic diversity, which has serious health implications (Bell).

Conversion Rates

Most breeders and exhibitors at AKC dog shows are unaware of a term called the Conversion Rate (CR). It is a statistical tool used by statisticians and AKC staff to measure the percentage of puppies born that are actually registered for each breed. CR’s also serve as a barometer to estimate the size of a breed population, the direction of its growth and the potential for future health problems. The fact that more breeds are showing lower CR’s confirm the need to study registrations and the effect they are having on the stud book, the sport and the breeds at greatest risk. In an effort to better understand this growing problem, this study examined some of the reasons for low CR’s and the seriousness of this trend. Eight breeds were randomly selected to be studied. Data about each breed was compiled by taking a three year average (2013,14,15) of their registrations and other related data. Table 1 shows the Boxer breed and the prevalence of the problem that was found throughout the stud book. Data for the Boxer breed shows that it averages 5,946 litters a year which produce 34,397 puppies but only 11,239 are registered, which means that the CR for Boxers is 33% and that 67% of all Boxer puppies born are lost to the Boxer breed and the stud book.

Table 1. Boxer Breed (Litters, Registrations, Conversion Rate)

Breed	# Litters	# Pups	# Registered	CR %	# Limited	% Limited	# Actually Bred	% Actually Bred	# Entered	% Actually Entered
Boxer	5,946	34,397	11,239	32.6%	1,377	12.5%	1,690	14.5%	548	4.9%

Table 2 shows the Labrador Retriever and German Shepherd Dog breeds. They are ranked 1 and 2 by the AKC and were found to have CR rates of only 38% and 41% respectively.

Table 2. Labrador and German Shepherd Dogs

Breed	# Litters	# Pups	# Registered	CR	# Limited	% Limited	# Actually Bred	% Actually Bred	# Entered	% Actually Entered
Retrievers (Labrador)	25,536	179,827	68,476	38.1%	12,895	18.8%	7,366	10.8%	3,328	4.9%
German Shepherd Dogs	15,601	96,426	39,588	41.1%	6,024	15.2%	5,531	14.0%	955	2.4%

Table 3 shows two other breeds from the middle sub-group of breeds in the stud book that confirm this same trend. The Italian Greyhound and Chow Chow breeds were found to have CR’s of 43% and 42% respectively.

Table 3. Italian Greyhound and Chow Chows/caption>

Breed	# Litters	# Pups	# Registered	CR	# Limited	% Limited	# Actually Bred	% Actually Bred	# Entered	% Actually Entered
Italian Greyhounds	467	1,825	794	43.5	99	12.4	101	12.6	223	28.0
Chow Chows	466	1,970	836	42.3	118	14.3	136	15.9	129	15.2

Table 4 shows two breeds taken from the bottom third of the stud book which show a similar trend. The Australian Terrier and Lackland Terriers had a CR of 55% and 51% respectively.

Table 4. Australian Terriers and Lakeland Terriers

#	# Litters	# Pups	# Registered	CR	# Limited	% Limited	LR %	# Actually Bred	% Actually Bred	# Entered	% Actually Entered
120	Australian Terriers	72	330	182	55.0%	54	29.6%	17	9.0%	70	38.5%
121	Lakeland Terriers	68	246	128	51.9%	35	27.7%	22	16.7%	34	26.3%

Many reasons have been offered to explain why 100% of the registerable pups are not being registered by their owners. Some point to changes in society, advances in technology and the competition for free time. This study identified seven other reasons: (1) New puppy buyers are so excited with their new pup and spend hours watching and playing with them. (2) Many breeders do not follow-up and owners forget about the registration paper work. (3) During the first weeks of ownership owners focus on learning about: nutrition, feeding schedules, house training, vaccinations and obedience classes, all of which distract from the importance of registration. (4) Owners misplace their AKC registration papers. (5) Some mistakenly believe their puppy is already registered because their name is written in on the AKC paperwork given them by the breeder. (6) Those who intend to spay or neuter their pup see no reason to register their pup because they do not intend to breed or show them. (7) The seventh reason follows the first six and is more troubling because it involves new owners who purchased a pup on a "Limited Registration(LR)". When owners learn that their pup cannot be entered in a show or bred, many see no reason to register their pup because of its limited status. A summary of these findings suggest that distractions, competing interests and a lack of breeder involvement account for many reasons that can be used to explain for low CR's.

Unfortunately, much of the data and information presented in this on-going study will go unnoticed by parent clubs and their breeders. Thus, little attention or concern is being given these problems and the subject has not gained the attention of most dog writers. The reader should note that the data in Tables 1 – 4, with only a few exceptions, is typical of most breeds. Data in columns 2-5 show not only the differences between the number of litters registered and the number of pups produced but those actually registered. When taken together, these data are good indicators of a breed's ability to grow and expand.

As previously mentioned, declining registrations and breed size should not be ignored because they will have an impact on breed health and entries at dog shows. The data in Table 5 confirm the effect that declining registrations are having on dog shows. The average number of entries at all dog shows for seven consecutive years is parallel to declines found in breed registrations. If this trend is left unchecked, exhibitors will cease to attend because competition and majors are sparse or not worth their effort and money.

Table 5. Avg. Conformation Entry 2010 – 2017

Year	Ave Show Entry	Difference from 2016	Percent
2010	996
2011	985	-11	-1.1%
2012	970	-16	-1.5%
2013	936	-33	-3.4%
2014	922	-14	-1.5%
2015	913	-9	-0.9%
2016	893	-20	-2.1%
2017	858	-35	-4.0%

According to Dr. Jerold Bell, noted population geneticist at Tufts Veterinary School, a breed can only remain healthy if it can grow and expand. In order to do this, small and large breed populations need mentors for their puppy buyers. Bell has voiced many concerns about shrinking breed populations because these breeds can become vulnerable to deleterious genes, lack of genetic diversity and a spread of health disorders. The data presented show there has been a slow downward spiral and a lack of growth for most breeds. One of the unintended consequences caused by these declines is not only a reduction in the number of breeders who breed using a standard, but the number of exhibitors who are willing to show their dogs. (Battaglia). This is confirmed by the fact that most causal breeders are not members of a breed club and most do not use a breed standard when selecting breeding stock. Bell says that breeds need to grow, become strong and remain healthy. This can be done using the better selection methods to produce the desired traits.

Conclusion

The data presented in Tables 1- 5 show the serious trend of declining registrations that is found in the stud book is having a negative effect on the stud book and the sport. Many of the problems identified can be attributed to these declines, the loss of breed entries, number of active breeders, club members and exhibitors. These problems are affecting club finances, budgets and their ability to break even or make a profit.

The complexity of these problems require separate solutions. It is clear from the data presented that declining registrations, low conversion rates and the role of the breed and their club are inter-connected. There are many unintended consequences for doing nothing. The recommendations offered focus on the need for parent clubs to offer more breeder education, seminars about the sport, newsletters and webinars. Two proposals were offered in the original in-depth report on this subject. They have been posted at Articles. The first proposal focused on involving AKC event staff combined with a marketing and public relations effort that would share information with each breed club, their breeders, officers, exhibitors and the AKC delegate committees. The second proposal focused on implementing a carefully crafted Sweepstakes Program involving all breeds. Both proposals are aimed at attracting new breeders and exhibits, club members and show entries.

The next article in this series will focus on the third factor affecting the conformation sport and the 60 breeds at greatest risk of extinction from the show ring. It is called the list of Low Entry breeds (LE).

Reference:

1. Battaglia, Carmen. 2017. 60 Breeds, Reported at the AKC board meeting, November Extinction in the Conformation Sport. Contributing Factors: Low Conversion Rates, Low Entry Breeds, Limited Registrations, NY, NY.
2. Bell, Jerold. 2017. The Aspect of Population Size on Healthy breeding in Dog Breeds. Proceedings of the 2017 AKC Canine Health Foundation National Parent Club Canine Health Conference. It can be reprinted with written permission from the author.jerold.bell@tufts.edu