"Progress is Just a Word Until You Make It Happen"

Background

By the early 1950’s breeding and showing dogs had become a popular American pastime and owning an AKC registered purebred dog was the gold standard. As America became more industrialized with the technological marvels of the smart telephone, microwave, TV and personal computer, family life also changed. Both parents became wage earners, which affected leisure time and the use of discretionary income. It was during the 1990’s that a slow and steady decline in litter and dog registrations began, which ultimately affected dog shows, breeders, exhibitors and entries. Most of the changes were small, and for the most part, not noticeable and it was during these years that four factors began to place downward pressures on the conformation sport. My first two reports (Parts I and II) focused on understanding the complexities of these factors and how they were affecting the sport. For example, low rates of puppy registrations were affecting the size of breed populations and genetic diversity.

This study was a data-driven effort. It focused on understanding some of the more troubling reasons behind these declines, the loss of breeders, exhibitors and show entries. It began with the understanding that dog ownership in America continues to be unquestionably high, but the love for purebred dogs does not seem to carry over to the sport. Only a fraction of today’s owners who breed dogs use a breed standard, belong to a dog club or have an interest in dog shows. Data for 2017 offer some other clues about these problems. For example, only 40 % of all AKC registerable puppies are registered, and in some breeds, new owners are only registering 33% of the pups. It was previously reported in Part II, that in addition to changes in our society and family life, other factors were producing a trickle-down that was impacting the finances of clubs, breeders and exhibitors. When combined, many of the declines in registrations, breeders, exhibitors and entries were found to be associated with a group of breeds called Low Entry Breeds.

Low Entry Breeds (LE)

By definition the term LE breed means that a threshold has occurred and that a breed had less than 3,500 entries in the previous year’s conformation events. Given this as our background, we begin this study knowing that nearly half of all recognized breeds (47%) are now listed as an LE breed. When breeds continually have declining litter and dog registrations, these declines will eventually be followed by declines in the number of breeders, exhibitors and show entries and over time impacting entries at conformation dog shows. To the average breeder and exhibitor, calling a breed “low entry” does not seem to be important until they realize that these entries must be spread over 1,424 all-breed shows and 2,969 specialty shows each year. Now, after years of declining registrations, coupled with an increase in the number of LE breeds, the 60 breeds at the bottom of the stud book are likely to follow a path that leads to extinction in the sport. To better understand the importance of declining registrations and their effect on breeds and show entries, an analysis was made of the 188 breeds in the stud book. All breeds in the stud book were ranked in decending order based on the average number of litters each breed registered during a three-year period (2013,14, 15). Breed averages were then ranked and sub-divided into three sub-groups called the top, middle and bottom groups, with each sub–group containing approximately 66 breeds. The 66 breeds that appear in the bottom group represent one-third of the stud book and are mostly LE breeds. While differences were found between large and small breed populations, all breeds were affected, but in different ways. For example, the list of LE breeds for 2017-2018 (Table 1) shows that five established breeds which did not appear on the 2015 LE list moved onto the LE list in 2016 or 2017. They were: Airedale Terriers, Bloodhounds, Lhasa Apsos, Norwegian Elkhounds & Parson Russell Terriers. Five other breeds that appeared on the 2015 LE list moved off the LE list in 2016 or 2017. They were: Bull Terriers, Kerry Blue Terriers, Manchester Terriers, Miniature American Shepherds & Wirehaired Pointing Griffons. Four of these breeds were added back on to the list in 2018. They are highlighted and underlined: Bull Terriers, Kerry Blue Terriers, Manchester Terriers. Also joining the list in 2018 were the Nederlandse Kooikerhondje and Wirehaired Pointing Griffons. Only the Leonberger breed moved off the list in 2017. These data confirm that the list of LE breeds is not only stable but serves as a reliable tool for projecting the future direction of a breed’s population size and the direction of its entry numbers at conformation shows.

Further analysis shows that 83 of the 90 LE breeds (88 %) had entries of fewer than 1,000 dogs per year, which is well below the threshold of 3,500 required for LE status. When 1,000 entries are spread over 1,424 all-breed and 2,969 specialty events, it is obvious that the LE breeds with small numbers of entries are negatively affecting breed populations, show entries, exhibitors and the revenues of the clubs putting on the shows. A more troubling statistic was that in less than one decade, the list of LE breeds has increased from 30% to 47% of the stud book.

Table 1. Low Entry Breeds – 2017 - 2018

1. Affenpinschers	33. Finnish Spitz	65. Polish Lowland Sheepdogs
2. Airedale Terriers	34. Fox Terrier (Wire)	66. Portuguese Podengo Pequeno
3. Am. English Coonhounds	35. German Pinschers	67. Pulik
4 American Eskimo Dogs	36. Giant Schnauzers	68. Pumi
5 American Foxhounds	37. Glen of Imaal Terriers	69. Pyrenean Shepherds
6. American Hairless Terriers	38. Greyhounds	70. Rat Terriers
7. Anatolian Shepherds	39. Harriers	71. Redbone Coonhounds
8. Australian Terriers	40. Ibizan Hounds	72. Retrievers Curly
9. Beauceron	41. Icelandic Sheepdogs	73. Retrievers Coated
10. Bedlington Terriers	42. Irish Terriers	74. Russell Terriers
11. Belgian Malinois	43. Kerry Blue Terriers *	75. Scottish Deerhounds
12. Belgian Sheepdogs	44. Komondorok	76. Sealyham Terriers
13. Bergamasco	45. Kuvaszok	77. Setters Irish Red & White
14. Berger Picards	46. Lagotti Romagnoli	78. Silky Terriers
15. Black and Tan Coonhounds	47. Lakeland Terriers	79. Skye Terriers
16. Black Russian Terriers	48. Leonbergers	80. Sloughi
17. Bloodhounds	49. Lhasa Apsos	81. Spaniels American Water
18. Bluetick Coonhounds	50. Lowchen	82. Spaniels - Boykin
19. Boerboels	51. Manchester Terriers *	83. Spaniels - Clumber
20. Briards	52. Miniature Bull Terriers	84. Spaniels - Field
21. Bull Terriers *	53. Neapolitan Mastiffs	85. Spaniels - Irish Water
22. Canaan Dogs	54. Nederlandse Kooikerhondje *	89. Spinoni Italiani
23. Cesky Terriers	55. Norfolk Terriers	86. Spaniels -Sussex
24. Chinook	56. Norwegian Buhunds	87. Spaniel - Welsh Springer
25. Cinco dell’Etna	57. Norwegian Elkhounds	88. Spanish Water Dogs
26. Coton de Tulear	58. Norwegian Lundehunds	90. Swedish Vallhund
27. Dandie Dinmont Terriers	59. Otterhounds	91. Tibetan Mastiffs
28. Dogues de Bordeaux	60. Parson Russell Terriers	92. Treeing Walker Coonhounds
29. English Foxhounds	61. Petits Bassets Griffons Vendeens	93. Welsh Terriers
30. English Toy Spaniels	62. Pharaoh Hounds	94. Wirehaired Pointing Griffons *
31. Entlebucher Mountain Dog	63. Plotts	95. Wirehaired Vizslas
32. Finnish Lapphunds	64. Pointer (German Wirehaired)	96. Xoloitzcuintli
N = 96,   * Breeds added to LE status in 2017

Table 2 shows that the average size entry has declined from 996 dogs in 2010 to 859 dogs in 2017. From a managerial perspective, LE breeds have produced many of these noticeable and important changes including the number of dogs required for championship points.

Table 2. Conformation Entries – (2010 – 2017)

Year	Show Entries	Difference	Pct.
2010	996
2011	985	11	1.1 %
2012	970	16	1.5 %
2013	936	33	3.4 %
2014	922	14	1.5 %
2015	913	9	0.9 %
2016	893	20	-2.1%
2017	859		- 4%

With only two exceptions (Labrador and Golden Retrievers) all breeds now only require that two dogs be defeated to earn one point. So how big is this problem and why should there be a concern about the future of the conformation sport? This can be answered by the following. Entries at conformation shows are now in their 14^th consecutive year of decline. Another unexpected finding was that sixteen LE breeds had entries of fewer than seventeen dogs. Table 3 shows that 16 LE breeds had fewer than 500 entries, 17 had entries of fewer than 1,000 and 50 had fewer than 200 entries in a year.

Table 3. Low Entry Breeds - Total Annual Entries (2017)

# LE Breeds with Entries	# of LE Breeds	# All-Breed Shows	# Specialty Shows
< than 500 entries	16	1,424	2,960
< than 1,000 entries	17	1,424	2,960
< than 2,000 entries	50	1,424	2,960
Total	83

The impact of small entries is significant because they are affecting half of all breeds in the stud book. Table 4 shows that seventeen LE breeds did not have a national specialty; six LE breeds had Nationals with entries of fewer than 20 and 50 LE breeds had entries of fewer than 50 dogs. Given the importance of national specialties, these data signal that some breeds are likely to become a memory in the conformation sport.

Table 4. LE Breed Entries at National Specialties

# Breeds with entries	Total # conformation entries
17	0
6	< 20
50	< 50
17	< 100

In a small sample of dogs shows in Texas and Alabama, the average number of breeds with only a single dog entry was 20 -30%. Other data taken from the AKC stud book (Battaglia) shows a downward trend in litters, dogs and show entries that are affecting the financial ability of clubs to host shows. Based on this data, it is easy to understand the frustration felt by breeders and exhibitors who enter a show only to find a lack of competition and no championship points or majors. Related to their concerns is the historical importance of the conformation sport which was the place where breeders and exhibitors could congregate to see and evaluate the results of breedings along with the progress and development of a breed. Over the past decade, with the growth of LE breeds and the decline in entries much of this attraction has been affected. As the LE list continues to grow it will play a greater role in affecting these elements of the sport. Other parts of the sport are also impacted. They include the health of many breeds and their shrinking gene pool populations. Breeds with the smallest gene pools tend to have the least number of breeders, registered litters and entries, which suggest they also are at a greater risk for a loss in their genetic diversity and the potential for an increase in the deleterious genes that accompany declining populations. Dr. Jerold Bell, noted population geneticist at Tufts Veterinary School concurs with this conclusion, stating that a breed can only remain healthy if it can grow and expand. In order to do this, small and large breed populations need mentors for their puppy buyers. Bell has voiced many of the same concerns that we in the AKC regarding shrinking breed populations. He also stated that breeds need to grow in order to become strong and remain healthy. This can be done by using better selection methods to produce the desired traits. As mentioned earlier, one of the unintended consequences of declining litter and dog registrations is the loss of breeders who use a breed standard, belong to a dog club or show the pups they produce. (Battaglia).

One might expect that breeds new to the AKC stud book would appear on the LE list for a short period of time. A review of the 28 new breeds admitted to the stud book during the past seven years shows that excluding data for their first year in the stud book new breeds all showed some tendency for a decline in the number of registered litters and dog registrations. These data are troubling because new breeds are expected to grow and expand, not decline.

Two examples serve to illustrate the trend observed for new breeds. The Chinook breed became a new breed in 2012. In that year Chinook breeders registered one litter and 746 dogs. Since that time their registrations have declined from 746 to 40 dogs in 2017. The Norwegian Lundehund breed was admitted in 2010. The number of registered litters for the breed declined from 6 to 2 litters and their dog registrations over the same period sharply declined from 547 to 4 dogs.

Table 5. Chinook

Dog Registered Each Year				Litters Registered Each Year
Breed	Yr. Admitted			Yr. Admitted
	2012	2013	2017	2012	2013	2017
	746	71	40	1	13	6

Table 6. Norwegian Lundehund

Dog Registered Each Year				Litters Registered Each Year
Breed	Yr. Admitted			Yr. Admitted
	2010	2011	2017	2010	2011	2017
	921	112	105	6	7	2

Because LE breeds continue to produce declining numbers of entries it is not uncommon for exhibitors to stop entering dogs in the sport. Over time this scenario affects competition and the sport begins to suffer. Unfortunately, the data about new breeds show that most do not grow and expand but continue to decline. Because of this, Dr. Bell has recommended that breed clubs, small and large, need to provide more mentors for new breeders along with additional educational efforts. He stresses the importance of selection as a necessary method for preserving the desired traits.

While this study was limited to the conformation sport, similar declines have also been noted in companion events as seen in Table 7.

Table 7. Companion Events Statistics January - December 2016 vs 2017

Jan-Dec	Entries	Entries	Growth	% Change	Events	Events	Growth	% Change
Year	2017	2016			2017	2016
Agility	1,215,476	1,223,676	-8200	-0.7%	3,806	3,684	122	3.3%
Obedience	121,980	126,878	-4,898	-3.9%	2,567	2,627	-60	-2.3%
Rally	76,381	76,328	53	0.1%	2,325	2,365	-40	-1.7%
Tracking	1,836	1,950	-114	-5.8%	431	451	-20	-4.4%
Totals	1,415,673	1,428,832	-13,159	-0.9%	9,129	9,127	2	0.0%

Conclusion

This study was data driven and focused on declining registrations and entries and how they are influencing the direction of the dog sport. Specific emphasis was placed on LE breeds because they now represent 47% of the stud book and are impacting clubs, breeders and exhibitors in the conformation sport. Data previously presented showed that three factors were driving down the number of breeders, exhibitors and show entries and affecting 60 breeds that are on a course to become extinct in the conformation sport.

The impact and continued growth of these problems serve as clear signals that the stud book and the sport, including breed population size, gene pool diversity, breeders and exhibitors are negatively being affected. While these data point to many causes for these concerns, there is a fourth factor affecting the conformation sport. It is the breeder’s tool called the Limited Registration. It will be the topic of my Part IV report.A copy of the original in-depth report of the four factors affecting the conformation sport has been posted at 60 Breeds Extinction Conformation Sport.

References:

1. Battaglia, Carmen, 2018. Four Factors Portend the Future of the Conformation Sport Part 1, Canine Chronicle, Ocala , Fl., April Issue.
2. Battaglia, Carmen, 2008, Ticket to Ride, AKC Perspectives, NY., NY. Vol. 21. No, 3., Sept, pg. 3-5.
3. Bell. Jerold 2017. 3. THE ASPECT OF POPULATION SIZE ON HEALTHY BREEDING IN DOG BREEDS. Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine at Tufts University, proceedings, 2017 AKC Canine Health Foundation National Parent Club Canine Health Conference.
4. 4. Bell, Jerold. 2017. The Ins and Outs of Pedigree Analysis, Genetic Diversity, and Genetic Disease Control. Tufts’ Canine & Feline Breeding and Genetics Conference, September 29 - October 1, 2005
5. 5. Brewer, G., 2005. Canine molecular genetic disease. Proceedings, Tufts’ canine and feline breeding and genetics conference, Sept., 30-Oct., 1, Sturbridge, MA.